From COP27 to Cup22

 It has not taken too long for global news agendas to start moving away from the critical outcomes of COP 27. Here, at home, FIFA World Cup 22 has taken over, and online news algorithms are already redirecting traffic back to Ukraine, China, Turkey and elsewhere.

The case had long been made for small island states of the Global South to be more acutely mindful of our own business. The agony of our small scientific and negotiating teams must be more fully appreciated as their return journeys leave the fastest of fading memories behind.

Kishan Kumarsingh and his ministry of planning team remained our top T&T COP performers. No grandstanding polemic. No flashy turns of phrases. But weary shoulders to the wheel.

Ditto the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) technocrats that span the oceans and have at different times found impressive Caribbean leadership.

To them, the so-called (and so-far amorphous) “Climate Justice” Fund or “loss and damage” provision to offset climate damage to developing states, would hardly be the revolutionary intervention it has been made out to be.

There were key details of such a measure left hanging in the haze of early-morning deliberations in Egypt and there is this sinking feeling that yet-to-be-elaborated specifics may prove as elusive as application of longstanding, unmet financial commitments to assure effective adaptation in countries such as ours.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres has, as is his wont, chimed in optimistically: “Clearly this will not be enough, but it is a much-needed political signal to rebuild broken trust.” There will however be a view that “trust” has not readily been in abundant supply.

The noteworthy omission, through all this, to emphasise the value of global decarbonisation and to actively re-visit the 1.5-degree commitment of Paris and, later, Glasgow, is among the more important points of collective under-achievement, and broken trust.

True, there were some of us who wished to remain passively disengaged from this in the face of new and emerging financial fortunes. Guyana and Suriname have put their cards on the table, and T&T has already described a pathway to progress without immediately discarding the key assets of oil and gas.

Several African states also went to the table with the precise challenge to defer development in favour of an arrangement for which the big guns have habitually displayed a lack of trustworthiness, while a global financial environment exhibits chronic neglect.

This strikes at the heart of what is now known as the “just energy transitions” to ensure that a notion of socio-economic justice remains in the mix. In the Caribbean we are already witnessing the challenges both in the geo-political dynamics and internally – between communities, sectors, and peoples.

And who is to blame us for not trusting what is before us on the world stage? COP 27 essentially declared that fossil fuels will remain a feature of global economic growth – with natural gas now moving off-centre as a focal point in the emissions game and coal bearing the growing brunt of attention.

The combined impacts of supply chain disruptions, Russia’s assault on Ukraine, and numerous pandemic hangovers were all there to provide justification by the big and wealthy for slower going when it came to emissions targets. So, who are we?

The UAE, which hosts COP28 next year, has already declared its commitment to the oil and gas economy in indefinite terms.

At the current rate, there is little hope that either the 1.5 target would hold or that the means to adjust quickly and effectively to accelerated changes in natural conditions will become available.

Instead, there appears to be a signal that “patch and repair” of “loss and damage” will be the preferred option, and that financing for adaptation and, to some small degree, mitigation will have to await better global economic conditions.

All of this assumes there is time to spare. Some have declared “hyperbole” to claims of a crisis or an emergency. There are other compelling narratives to occupy our time and resources – violent crime, political dysfunction, faltering economies.

World CUP 22 offers fleeting comfort COP 27 could not have possibly presented. It’s not going to be enough.