It’s
still relatively early COVID-19 days for us in the Caribbean, but I think it’s
time we start considering the ways the global impact of the pandemic is likely
to change our lives forever – for better or for worse.
The
peaks and troughs of outbreaks, epidemics and pandemics are frequently
described as statistical growth curves to be “flattened” through interventions
that avoid an otherwise unavoidable explosion.
The
experience with even less extreme events is that a lasting flattening of
multiple social, economic and political curves can accompany such episodes.
It
is true that the medically more vulnerable, together with the poor and
financially disadvantaged, are called to bear an equal but intrinsically
inequitable share of the burden, but it is also a fact that the burden of a
pandemic crosses the divides as effectively as natural disasters and the
inevitability of death.
It
is thus difficult not to make constant reference to what I have been referring
to as the “legacy” issues that relate to the world of work, lifestyles, public
healthcare delivery, the use of technology, and the general power dynamics of domestic
and global politics.
As
we speak, the mighty are being brought to their knees and a disassembling of
the structures of power and influence is already in evidence. Who would have
thought that through all its wealth and political power, Europe (as was the
case 1500 years ago with the Bubonic Justinian Plague) would grind to the
screeching halt we are now witnessing?
Who
would have guessed that the mighty USA would have found itself stuck on the
crease, on the back foot, with a bouncer en route with pace to its unhelmeted
head?
But
all of this is not a new or original contemplation. Our planet has experienced
life-changing pandemics in the past that have caused gigantic shifts comparable
to the incidence of global warfare and accompanying dramatic changes in
geo-political power and influence.
Europe’s
14th Century Bubonic disaster, which claimed up to two-thirds of the
population of the continent is thought to have contributed to the eventual
dissolution of the feudal state. There were also significant impacts, positive
and negative, on farming practices and the process of urbanisation.
Could
it be that COVID-19 has played a role in the carbon emissions discussions more
than any global commitment of the past 20 years? Could it just be that the
value of virtual workspaces has, by force, been finally established? Likewise,
the unavailability of schools has not necessarily meant the absence of
schooling.
It
is also advisable, at this stage, to consider what happened when the HIV/AIDS
pandemic peaked in the latter part of the 1900s and took the lives of tens of
millions of people.
We
have already had to address issues of social stereotyping, stigma and
discrimination, harmful disinformation, and compliance with a reorienting of
behaviours – “protection”, the role of clinical testing and other lasting
features of our response to the virus.
It
has also proven inadvisable to focus purely on fatality rates (as important as
they are), especially now that current interventions at national levels, guided
by the timely acquisition of knowledge are more likely than not to save
countless lives and minimise suffering – providing people in the regular
conduct of their lives take basic precautions.
There
still are too many who do not accept that, at one level, it’s simply a matter
of claiming adequate social space, washing your hands, and avoiding contact
with eyes, nose and mouth - personal responsibility as the ultimate solution.
Beyond
that, workers, employers, parents and citizens, are being called upon to make
changes in the ways they have conceptualised their relationships with their
natural and social environments.
Governments
are now being forced to recalibrate revenue and expenditure estimates in the
face of assured fiscal crises while addressing critical and otherwise under-served
needs in the social services sector. Food import substitution remains a
compelling option along with reduced reliance on imported consumer durables, even
as aviation and shipping lanes close.
It
might just be that we are all in a rendezvous with economic disaster, but
maybe, just maybe, the flattening of the curve also brings with it a new
dispensation in which hope can find space through which to shine more brightly
than it has in recent times.
(Published in the T&T Guardian - March 18, 2020)
