Haiti’s election mirage

The Caribbean news agenda is currently so packed, the temptation would be to relegate some important issues to the bottom of the lineup in the belief they would somehow resolve themselves - out of sight and out of mind.

Haiti’s proposed December 13 elections – 10 years after the last one - has been reduced to brief paragraphs signalling everything between remote possibility and terminal impossibility.

Thankfully, the diligent eyes of indigenous Haitian outlets and committed observers, have maintained a realistic focus on developments as nuanced as they are problematic to portend.

My Haitian Tuk Tuk watercolour (Aug 2024)

On Monday, a release on the September 2-9 visit of the Caricom Eminent Persons Group (EPG) to Haiti acknowledged intractable challenges but fell short on the more realistic conclusion that a first-round December 13 encounter, if it happens, is unlikely to produce viable political conditions.

“The EPG observed several positive developments, including the work being undertaken to reignite an election process after more than ten years,” the press release says.

However, days before, OAS Secretary General, Albert Ramdin, was advising: “There is a certain collusion between the political world and the gangs. I am saying this clearly because everyone knows it, but no one is talking about it.” The EPG should be prepared to publicly confront that reality.

Now, there is no doubt that Caricom’s diplomatic engagement is, at minimum, symbolically significant. But I am fearful that the expectations conveyed exceed realities reflected on the ground.

This is not at all to diminish the value of the efforts of the EPG comprising former Saint Lucia Prime Minister Kenny Anthony, former Jamaica Prime Minister Bruce Golding and former Bahamas Prime Minister Perry Christie.

But, in reality, the prospects for Haiti holding a first round of credible, inclusive, and safe elections on December 13 look increasingly dismal. A second round has been scheduled for February 21 next year.

Voter registration is behind expectations. Large parts of the country remain beyond effective state control. Political parties have raised the possibility that important procedural changes might be postponed. 

Most fundamentally, the EPG itself acknowledges a “recent spread and spike” in deadly violence and kidnappings, and the slow deployment of the international Gang Suppression Force whose tenure faces renewal on September 30.

The OAS SG has been far more outspoken on the hazards. Do not dismiss this observation as an attack on the competence or commitment of the EPG. Their mandate is essentially one of political dialogue and good offices. The problem is that political mediation cannot by itself create the conditions under which democracy operates.

My friend and eminent Haitian journalist, Phares Jerome writing in Le Nouvelliste, described the election plan as “increasingly hypothetical as the government struggles to take the appropriate measures to create the conditions for holding elections.”

He references the August 23 Kenscoff massacre which claimed the lives of 47 men, women, and children as proof that “the government has not yet found the right formula to neutralise the bandits. On the contrary, fear is once again taking hold in Port-au-Prince and its surrounding areas.”

Jerome also challenges acting Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé’s effective influence over the “conditions for organising elections.” Miami Herald journalist, Jacqueline Charles’ reportage also poses similar questions.

How can candidates campaign freely when roads remain controlled by armed groups? How can voters register when territories are beyond state authority? How can citizens cast ballots safely when the security forces themselves cannot guarantee freedom of movement?

The humanitarian numbers make the disconnect even more stark. According to UN figures, in the first half of 2026, at least 2,310 people were killed, 1,106 injured, and 99 kidnapped in gun-related violence.

These are not simply security statistics. They describe the environment in which Haiti is expected to conduct a national democratic exercise. The humanitarian crisis is equally formidable.

By the end of 2025, the UN estimated that about 1.5 million Haitians were internally displaced. There is severe food insecurity and the collapse of basic services in many areas.

Elections require more than laws, registration centres, candidates and polling stations. They need citizens to have the security, resilience, and freedom to participate.

There have been solidarity slogans, resolutions, conferences, and security initiatives. Yet the resources required to translate those commitments into reality have consistently fallen short.

What is required appears to be a substantial, sustained investment by all – and within our means in the region. We must also resist the temptation to confuse diplomatic progress with political transformation.

The December 13 election should therefore be regarded as a conditional objective, not an inevitability.